New COVID-19 cases in Niagara declining but will they stay there?

While it may seem new COVID-19 cases in Niagara are on the decline, it’s going to take another month or so to really get a handle on the region’s health.

For the past three days, it is certainly on the decline but a quick look at the last 28 days (graph below) will tell you that February and March have been fluctuating up and down with no discernable pattern.

When Niagara registered 79 new cases on Saturday (March 19), there had certainly been other days in the four week period that topped that number.

Likewise, today’s new cases of 41 was far from the lowest Niagara has been with four days lower than that over the past 28 days.

The lesson is Niagara seems to be just because it’s low today doesn’t mean it’s going to stay low, just as the region’s higher dates may drop the following day. It is simply no rhyme nor reason to the numbers.

Today’s removal of the mask mandates by the Province may or may not play a role in a potential increases of cases through the region, especially since both Niagara school boards had dropped the mask rule in their schools just as children are returning from March Break.

Two new deaths were reported since late last week, bringing the death toll to 524.

There was also a rise in hospitalizations for COVID-19 locally with 14 patients are being treated primarily for the virus, with three being cared for in the ICU.